Freiburg 3-2 Hoffenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.94
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.68
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 25% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.54
1/2
9%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
12%
4.73
X/2
8%
8.07
X/X
12%
5.41
2/1
7%
22.45
2/2
11%
5.76
2/X
7%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.3pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -13%
1.88/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.69
+13% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
353 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
21.8 Crosses 17.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Hoffenheim
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.73 xG 1.34
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
345 Passes 357
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
20.01.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 3-2 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
19.08.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-2 HT 0-2 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
12.03.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
18.09.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 0-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
30.04.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 3-4 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
3-2
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.29 xG 1.68
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
257 Passes 419
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Hoffenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg squeezed past Hoffenheim 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Freiburg as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Freiburg had 39% of the ball to Hoffenheim's 61%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 1.29 to 1.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Freiburg and 1.33 for Hoffenheim.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Hoffenheim?

Freiburg 3-2 Hoffenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Hoffenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 44%, draw 28%, Hoffenheim 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg) ✓ BTTS Yes
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