Union Berlin 4-4 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.97
Over 2.5
43%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 29% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.41
1/2
9%
25.5
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
16%
6.62
X/2
14%
5.45
X/X
14%
4.85
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
14%
3.26
2/X
8%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-3.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
47%
+9.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
53%
-9.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.2pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 45%
+7% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +14%
1.20/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.42
-31% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
290 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 78%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
21.0 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Stuttgart
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.97 xG 1.46
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
277 Passes 526
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
06.12.2024 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-2 HT 0-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
08.03.2024 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
31.10.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AFK
21.10.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-3 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
01.04.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-0 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
09.10.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 0-1 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
4-4
AWAY Stuttgart
1.33 xG 0.94
22% Ball Possession 78%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
149 Passes 757
66% Pass Accuracy 92%
13 Box Touches 38
14 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin and Stuttgart shared the points in a 4-4 draw. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Union Berlin had 22% of the ball to Stuttgart's 78%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.33 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stuttgart led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Union Berlin and 1.50 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Stuttgart?

Union Berlin 4-4 Stuttgart in the Germany - Bundesliga on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated an Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 35%, draw 27%, Stuttgart 38%. The final score 4-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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