Mainz 05 2-2 Wolfsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.91
2-3 Goals
44%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.06
6+ Goals
10%
9.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.73
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
13%
4.94
X/2 EV+ ✗
15%
7.55
X/X
10%
5.28
2/1
7%
22.9
2/2
12%
5.26
2/X
9%
13.65
Value flag · X/2 at 7.55 — our 15% vs market 9.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-6.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.0pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -10%
1.54/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.27
-19% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
340 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 74%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
22.1 Crosses 17.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.37 xG 1.46
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
337 Passes 381
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2024 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 4-3 HT 1-2 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
18.05.2024 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-3 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
13.01.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 0-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
30.04.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 3-0 HT 3-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
05.11.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-3 HT 0-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
22.04.2022 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 5-0 HT 5-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
2-2
AWAY Wolfsburg
2.75 xG 1.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
294 Passes 276
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 27
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 and Wolfsburg couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Mainz 05 at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 52% of the ball to Wolfsburg's 48%, shots finished 18-16, expected goals 2.75 to 1.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wolfsburg led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Mainz 05 and 2.83 for Wolfsburg.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg?

Mainz 05 2-2 Wolfsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 41%, draw 26%, Wolfsburg 33%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mainz 05) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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