Bala Town 3-2 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.17
Draw
38%
3.18
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.74
Over 2.5
36%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.79
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.85
6+ Goals
7%
17.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 31% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
12%
1/X
13%
X/1
8%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
28%
-2.3pp
38%
Draw
28%
+9.8pp
36%
Away Win
44%
-7.5pp
64%
Under 2.5
54%
+10.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
46%
-10.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.7pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bala Town EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
0.72/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/0.91
-39% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +21%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
228 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bala Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Penybont
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
5 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.03.2025 Penybont Penybont 3-2 HT 1-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
26.10.2024 Penybont Penybont 1-1 HT 1-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
31.08.2024 Bala Town Bala Town 1-2 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
02.12.2023 Penybont Penybont 0-2 HT 0-2 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
02.09.2023 Bala Town Bala Town 2-1 HT 2-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
25.03.2023 Penybont Penybont 2-2 HT 1-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bala Town
3-2
AWAY Penybont
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Bala Town vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bala Town edged past Penybont 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 26% / 38% / 36% — and on the day Bala Town made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bala Town had 42% of the ball to Penybont's 58%, shots finished 11-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bala Town and 1.50 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Bala Town vs Penybont?

Bala Town 3-2 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bala Town vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Bala Town 26%, draw 38%, Penybont 36%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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