Caernarfon Town 2-1 Cardiff MU — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒14:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.67
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.08
6+ Goals
9%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 25% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.7pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 33%
+6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
2.18/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.32
+37% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
329 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cardiff MU
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
08.03.2025 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 4-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
05.10.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 1-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
31.08.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 1-2 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
10.05.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
23.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 0-2 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
10.02.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caernarfon Town
2-1
AWAY Cardiff MU
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MU
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town edged past Cardiff MU 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Caernarfon Town as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Caernarfon Town had 50% of the ball to Cardiff MU's 50%, shots finished 8-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff MU led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Caernarfon Town and 1.83 for Cardiff MU.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MU?

Caernarfon Town 2-1 Cardiff MU in the Wales - Premier League on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MU?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 43%, draw 27%, Cardiff MU 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caernarfon Town), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✓ BTTS Yes
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