Cardiff MU 4-2 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
37%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.69
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.0
6+ Goals
7%
9.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.69 — our 25% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
37%
Away Win
37%
-0.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.7pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 40%
+15% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +6%
1.53/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.54
+19% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -20%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff MU
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
38% Ball Possession 62%
4 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 1-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
31.08.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 1-2 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
10.05.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
23.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 0-2 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
10.02.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
13.01.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-2 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cardiff MU
4-2
AWAY Caernarfon Town
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cardiff MU beat Caernarfon Town 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Cardiff MU found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Cardiff MU had 50% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 50%, shots finished 15-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cardiff MU and 1.67 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town?

Cardiff MU 4-2 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cardiff MU 36%, draw 28%, Caernarfon Town 37%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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