Gagra 0-1 Saburtalo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.75
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
46%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.67
Over
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
42%
4-5
23%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
27%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
24%
+0.6pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
46%
Away Win
49%
-2.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gagra EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 53%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +9%
1.08/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.13/1.51
+4% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -37%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
255 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gagra
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Saburtalo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2024 Gagra Gagra 1-2 HT 1-0 Saburtalo GUR
26.09.2024 Saburtalo 1-1 HT 0-1 Gagra Gagra GUR
28.05.2024 Gagra Gagra 4-0 HT 4-0 Saburtalo GUR
11.04.2024 Saburtalo 3-1 HT 2-1 Gagra Gagra GUR
11.11.2023 Gagra Gagra 2-1 HT 0-1 Saburtalo GUR
02.09.2023 Saburtalo 5-0 HT 2-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gagra
0-1
AWAY Saburtalo
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gagra vs Saburtalo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saburtalo edged past Gagra 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Saburtalo as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Gagra had 47% of the ball to Saburtalo's 53%, shots finished 10-19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saburtalo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gagra and 2.00 for Saburtalo.

What was the final score of Gagra vs Saburtalo?

Gagra 0-1 Saburtalo in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gagra vs Saburtalo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Saburtalo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gagra 24%, draw 30%, Saburtalo 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saburtalo), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Saburtalo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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