Worthing 3-2 Tonbridge Angels — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.18
Draw
35%
3.35
Away
36%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.46
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.45
6+ Goals
7%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 30% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
7%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
42%
-12.8pp
34%
Draw
27%
+7.9pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+5.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.8pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Worthing EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Tonbridge Angels EU Bookmakers 34%
-14% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +0%
2.06/1.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.45
+47% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
418 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Worthing
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Tonbridge Angels
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
20.01.2024 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels 0-1 HT 0-0 Worthing Worthing İCON
05.08.2023 Worthing Worthing 1-0 HT 0-0 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels İCON
04.02.2023 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels 2-1 HT 0-1 Worthing Worthing İCON
22.11.2022 Worthing Worthing 3-2 HT 3-1 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels İCON
POST-MATCH Worthing vs Tonbridge Angels
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Worthing squeezed past Tonbridge Angels 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 29% / 34% / 36% — and on the day Worthing made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Worthing had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Worthing and 1.00 for Tonbridge Angels.

What was the final score of Worthing vs Tonbridge Angels?

Worthing 3-2 Tonbridge Angels in the England - Conference on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Worthing vs Tonbridge Angels?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tonbridge Angels win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Worthing 29%, draw 34%, Tonbridge Angels 36%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tonbridge Angels), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tonbridge Angels) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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