Carlisle United 1-1 Harrogate Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 19 Oct 2024

Carlisle United
1-1
Harrogate Town
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Carlisle United vs Harrogate Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
33%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.82
Over
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
31%
3.2
2-3
37%
1.78
4-5
22%
3.67
6+
10%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.2 — our 31% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.65
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
13%
4.37
X/2
11%
7.55
X/X
10%
4.6
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
15%
5.71
2/X
9%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
33%
Away Win
25%
+7.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.2pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Carlisle United v Harrogate Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United The Market 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Harrogate Town The Market 29%
+0% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.31/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.38
+1% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
252 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 68%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
19.2 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7

Carlisle United vs Harrogate Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Harrogate Town
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.20 xG 1.07
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
265 Passes 328
66% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.11.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-0 HT 1-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İNTK
08.08.2023 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İNLK
04.02.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-1 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
08.11.2022 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-3 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
23.04.2022 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-0 HT 2-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
04.01.2022 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İNTK

Carlisle United 1-1 Harrogate Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
1-1
AWAY Harrogate Town
70% Ball Possession 30%
23 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
507 Passes 174
83% Pass Accuracy 68%
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Harrogate Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlisle United and Harrogate Town couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Carlisle United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Carlisle United had 70% of the ball to Harrogate Town's 30%, shots finished 23-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Harrogate Town led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Carlisle United and 1.50 for Harrogate Town.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Harrogate Town?

Carlisle United 1-1 Harrogate Town in the England - 2nd Division on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Harrogate Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 41%, draw 27%, Harrogate Town 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Carlisle United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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