Belenenses 0-2 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
5.09
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
47%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.95
No
47%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
12%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
21%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
17%
+9.6pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.2pp
47%
Away Win
60%
-13.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.4pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Belenenses EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 64%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.88
+5% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -9%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
225 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Belenenses
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gil Vicente
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.48 xG 0.81
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
289 Passes 395
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 Belenenses Belenenses 1-2 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POK
19.02.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-0 HT 0-0 Belenenses Belenenses POR
18.09.2021 Belenenses Belenenses 1-1 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
26.04.2021 Belenenses Belenenses 2-1 HT 0-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
04.01.2021 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 0-0 HT 0-0 Belenenses Belenenses POR
19.07.2020 Belenenses Belenenses 1-0 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
POST-MATCH Belenenses vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente saw off Belenenses 2-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gil Vicente as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Belenenses and 1.00 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Belenenses vs Gil Vicente?

Belenenses 0-2 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Cup on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Belenenses vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Belenenses 27%, draw 27%, Gil Vicente 47%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gil Vicente), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gil Vicente) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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