Paços De Ferreira 1-3 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
5.91
Draw
30%
3.94
Away
42%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
14%
+13.8pp
30%
Draw
22%
+7.8pp
42%
Away Win
64%
-21.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.9pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 69%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
0.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.79/0.79
-100% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / +1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 6.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paços De Ferreira
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.94 xG 1.44
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
344 Passes 299
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.04.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-0 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
08.10.2022 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
15.04.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 4-0 HT 2-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
04.12.2021 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-2 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.02.2021 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
02.10.2020 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paços De Ferreira
1-3
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Paços De Ferreira vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes beat Paços De Ferreira 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 48% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 52%, shots finished 15-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 1.50 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Paços De Ferreira 1-3 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Cup on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 28%, draw 30%, Vitoria Guimaraes 42%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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