Blau-Weiss Linz 3-4 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.75
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
51%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.49
2-3 Goals
47%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
13.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.82
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
23.55
1/X
5%
14.6
X/1
11%
8.81
X/2
15%
4.47
X/X
10%
4.89
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
26%
2.38
2/X
10%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.55 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
23%
+1.0pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
51%
Away Win
52%
-0.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Blau-Weiss Linz EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 56%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +15%
1.18/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.21
-22% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
256 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 74%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
15.0 Crosses 19.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Blau-Weiss Linz
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.01 xG 2.21
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
250 Passes 302
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 31
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2025 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz 0-1 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
20.04.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 1-0 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz AVU
23.02.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-0 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz AVU
30.10.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-0 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz AVK
28.09.2024 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz 1-2 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
21.03.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-1 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Blau-Weiss Linz
3-4
AWAY Sturm Graz
2.39 xG 1.58
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
347 Passes 254
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Blau-Weiss Linz vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz nicked a narrow win over Blau-Weiss Linz 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Blau-Weiss Linz had 57% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 43%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 2.39 to 1.58 — on chances, Blau-Weiss Linz could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Blau-Weiss Linz and 1.50 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Blau-Weiss Linz vs Sturm Graz?

Blau-Weiss Linz 3-4 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Blau-Weiss Linz vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Blau-Weiss Linz 24%, draw 25%, Sturm Graz 51%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz)
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVU More Austria - Bundesliga
19 Oct 2025
15:30 Salzburg vs Rheindorf Altach Analysis →
18:00 Rapid Wien vs LASK Linz Analysis →