Blau-Weiss Linz 0-1 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.29
Draw
37%
3.35
Away
35%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.1
2-3 Goals
44%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.96
6+ Goals
10%
17.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
5.64
1/2
10%
26.0
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
5%
7.32
X/2
8%
4.66
X/X
24%
4.59
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
17%
2.82
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+0.7pp
37%
Draw
26%
+10.6pp
35%
Away Win
47%
-11.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.9pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Blau-Weiss Linz EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 50%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.33/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.34
-12% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
243 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
15.0 Crosses 18.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Blau-Weiss Linz
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.32 xG 1.85
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
258 Passes 317
68% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
20.04.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 1-0 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz AVU
23.02.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-0 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz AVU
30.10.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-0 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz AVK
28.09.2024 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz 1-2 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
21.03.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-1 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz HAZ
03.12.2023 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz 1-1 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Blau-Weiss Linz
0-1
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.42 xG 2.54
51% Ball Possession 49%
6 Total Shots 21
0 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
298 Passes 280
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 36
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Blau-Weiss Linz vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz edged past Blau-Weiss Linz 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 28% / 37% / 35% — and on the day Sturm Graz made the difference. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while both teams to score (56%) missed.

On the day, Blau-Weiss Linz had 51% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 49%, shots finished 6-21, expected goals 0.42 to 2.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sturm Graz's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Blau-Weiss Linz and 1.50 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Blau-Weiss Linz vs Sturm Graz?

Blau-Weiss Linz 0-1 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Blau-Weiss Linz vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Blau-Weiss Linz 28%, draw 37%, Sturm Graz 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Draw), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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