Sturm Graz 2-0 Blau-Weiss Linz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
17%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.77
2-3 Goals
43%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
3.36
6+ Goals
10%
11.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 25% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.92
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.95
X/1
18%
4.04
X/2
6%
11.9
X/X
14%
5.8
2/1
7%
22.45
2/2
6%
9.86
2/X
9%
18.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-6.4pp
28%
Draw
22%
+6.0pp
17%
Away Win
17%
+0.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.5pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Blau-Weiss Linz EU Bookmakers 20%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
2.21/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.55
+28% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
355 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 71%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
20.0 Crosses 13.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Blau-Weiss Linz
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.69 xG 1.27
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
360 Passes 265
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
26 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.02.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-0 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz AVU
30.10.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-0 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz AVK
28.09.2024 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz 1-2 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
21.03.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-1 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz HAZ
03.12.2023 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz 1-1 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
26.08.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-1 HT 2-0 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
2-0
AWAY Blau-Weiss Linz
2.40 xG 0.75
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
297 Passes 212
75% Pass Accuracy 69%
26 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Blau-Weiss Linz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz beat Blau-Weiss Linz 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 56% of the ball to Blau-Weiss Linz's 44%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 2.40 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.17 for Blau-Weiss Linz.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Blau-Weiss Linz?

Sturm Graz 2-0 Blau-Weiss Linz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Blau-Weiss Linz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 55%, draw 28%, Blau-Weiss Linz 17%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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