KuPS Kuopio 3-1 HJK Helsinki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
40%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.49
No
44%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.9
2-3 Goals
39%
1.97
4-5 Goals
24%
2.84
6+ Goals
12%
7.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.27
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
25.5
1/X
5%
12.35
X/1
13%
5.75
X/2
14%
6.38
X/X
11%
5.61
2/1
8%
23.1
2/2
15%
3.85
2/X
6%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 11% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.5pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.8pp
40%
Away Win
34%
+5.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
63%
-7.1pp
44%
BTTS No
37%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 38%
+8% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.49/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.50
+15% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
374 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 83%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
16.0 Crosses 15.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KuPS Kuopio
2W-1D-3L
AWAY HJK Helsinki
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.41 xG 1.05
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
383 Passes 450
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.09.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİK
27.06.2025 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 3-0 HT 2-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
31.05.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 0-0 HT 0-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
15.03.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-1 HT 1-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FLK
19.10.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 1-0 HT 1-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
19.06.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-1 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KuPS Kuopio
3-1
AWAY HJK Helsinki
1.47 xG 0.88
37% Ball Possession 63%
14 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 10
342 Passes 613
87% Pass Accuracy 90%
20 Box Touches 34
10 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH KuPS Kuopio vs HJK Helsinki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KuPS Kuopio saw off HJK Helsinki 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 22% / 40% — and on the day KuPS Kuopio made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, KuPS Kuopio had 37% of the ball to HJK Helsinki's 63%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.47 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 1.17 for HJK Helsinki.

What was the final score of KuPS Kuopio vs HJK Helsinki?

KuPS Kuopio 3-1 HJK Helsinki in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KuPS Kuopio vs HJK Helsinki?

Before kick-off our model rated an HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split KuPS Kuopio 38%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 40%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (HJK Helsinki) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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