Molde 1-3 Sandefjord — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 19 Oct 2025

Molde
1-3 HT 1-2
Sandefjord
📅19/10/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Norway - Eliteserien – 2025

Molde vs Sandefjord Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.8
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
19%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.46
No
38%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.61
2-3 Goals
36%
2.06
4-5 Goals
30%
2.69
6+ Goals
15%
6.38
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.33
1/2
4%
32.5
1/X
5%
13.05
X/1
16%
4.81
X/2
6%
8.63
X/X
10%
6.34
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
19.55
2/2
9%
5.67
2/X
7%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.55 — our 15% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
52%
+7.5pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.1pp
19%
Away Win
25%
-6.4pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.9pp
62%
BTTS Yes
64%
-2.1pp
38%
BTTS No
36%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Molde v Sandefjord — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Molde EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Sandefjord EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
2.11/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.71
+31% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
21.4 Crosses 19.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Molde vs Sandefjord Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Molde
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sandefjord
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.69 xG 1.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
372 Passes 336
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
34 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.04.2025 Sandefjord Sandefjord 3-0 HT 2-0 Molde Molde NOR
19.10.2024 Molde Molde 0-1 HT 0-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
05.05.2024 Sandefjord Sandefjord 3-1 HT 0-1 Molde Molde NOR
12.08.2023 Sandefjord Sandefjord 2-2 HT 1-0 Molde Molde NOR
29.05.2023 Molde Molde 5-0 HT 2-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
06.11.2022 Molde Molde 2-1 HT 1-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR

Molde 1-3 Sandefjord — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Molde
1-3
AWAY Sandefjord
1.86 xG 0.98
60% Ball Possession 40%
22 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 4
469 Passes 298
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
42 Box Touches 26
48 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Molde vs Sandefjord
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sandefjord got the better of Molde 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Molde at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, Molde had 60% of the ball to Sandefjord's 40%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 1.86 to 0.98 — the balance of chances actually favoured Molde.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sandefjord led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Molde and 1.67 for Sandefjord.

What was the final score of Molde vs Sandefjord?

Molde 1-3 Sandefjord in the Norway - Eliteserien on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Molde vs Sandefjord?

Before kick-off our model rated a Molde win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Molde 59%, draw 22%, Sandefjord 19%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Molde) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Molde) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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