Progreso vs Defensor Sporting Prediction — Model Probabilities
Progreso v Defensor Sporting — Team-Based Signals
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Progreso 2-3 Defensor Sporting — Actual Match Statistics
Defensor Sporting edged past Progreso 3-2 on the road. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 30% / 39% — and on the day Defensor Sporting made the difference.
Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 46% and both teams to score at 52%. If anything the market was more convinced: the BTTS-no price stood at 1.85, roughly 54%.
On the day, possession split 54% to 46% in Progreso's favour, shots finished 14-14.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.00 a game for Progreso against 2.17 for Defensor Sporting.
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting Result & Final Score
Progreso 2 - 3 Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay - Premier League on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Progreso 31%, draw 30%, Defensor Sporting 39%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensor Sporting), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.