Progreso vs Defensor Sporting Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Progreso v Defensor Sporting — Team-Based Signals
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 0-1
Progreso
URUK
1-1
HT 0-0
Defensor Sporting
URUK
Progreso 2-3 Defensor Sporting — Actual Match Statistics
Defensor Sporting edged past Progreso 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Defensor Sporting made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.
On the day, Progreso had 54% of the ball to Defensor Sporting's 46%, shots finished 14-14.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Progreso and 2.17 for Defensor Sporting.
What was the final score of Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
Progreso 2-3 Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay - Premier League on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
Before kick-off our model rated an Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Progreso 35%, draw 28%, Defensor Sporting 37%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensor Sporting), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.