El Paso Locomotive 1-1 FC Tulsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.68
No
40%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.27
6+ Goals
11%
12.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.27 — our 24% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-1.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
56%
+4.1pp
40%
BTTS No
44%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +9%
1.35/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.32
+6% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
17.7 Crosses 17.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Paso Locomotive
3W-3D-0L
AWAY FC Tulsa
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.99 xG 1.16
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
387 Passes 313
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.05.2025 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 1-1 HT 0-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
06.10.2024 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-1 HT 0-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
01.04.2023 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 2-2 HT 1-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
05.05.2022 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 3-1 HT 1-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
10.10.2021 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 1-2 HT 1-2 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
11.10.2020 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-2 HT 1-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
1-1
AWAY FC Tulsa
1.71 xG 1.13
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 10
226 Passes 236
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs FC Tulsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive and FC Tulsa couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was El Paso Locomotive at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 49% of the ball to FC Tulsa's 51%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.71 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Paso Locomotive had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for El Paso Locomotive and 1.17 for FC Tulsa.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs FC Tulsa?

El Paso Locomotive 1-1 FC Tulsa in the USL Championship on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs FC Tulsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 43%, draw 29%, FC Tulsa 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (El Paso Locomotive), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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