Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-2 Hartford Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.27
Draw
19%
3.45
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.07
Over 2.5
59%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.6
No
39%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.78
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
2.98
6+ Goals
13%
9.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
40%
+9.8pp
19%
Draw
25%
-6.1pp
31%
Away Win
35%
-3.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
44%
-3.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
56%
+3.8pp
61%
BTTS Yes
58%
+2.2pp
39%
BTTS No
42%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartford Athletic EU Bookmakers 39%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +22%
1.73/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/1.53
+45% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +77% / +6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
286 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 79%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
16.8 Crosses 15.9
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Hartford Athletic
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.18 xG 1.18
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
368 Passes 349
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.07.2025 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 0-1 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
24.10.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-2 HT 1-2 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
22.06.2024 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 0-1 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
28.09.2023 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 0-2 HT 0-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
03.09.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 HT 1-1 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
10.07.2022 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 2-3 HT 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
3-2
AWAY Hartford Athletic
0.56 xG 1.39
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
258 Passes 363
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
10 Box Touches 13
8 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Hartford Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies edged past Hartford Athletic 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tampa Bay Rowdies as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 42% of the ball to Hartford Athletic's 58%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 0.56 to 1.39 — the balance of chances actually favoured Hartford Athletic.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 0.83 for Hartford Athletic.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Hartford Athletic?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-2 Hartford Athletic in the USL Championship on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Hartford Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 49%, draw 19%, Hartford Athletic 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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