APOEL Nicosia 1-1 FC Astana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 19 Dec 2024

📅19/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.43
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.03
6+ Goals
10%
9.76
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.86 — our 26% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.76
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.55
X/1
21%
3.61
X/2
5%
14.1
X/X
13%
6.38
2/1
13%
22.55
2/2
8%
11.25
2/X
6%
19.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
65%
-7.6pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.1pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.4pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME APOEL Nicosia EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Astana EU Bookmakers 17%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.21/0.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/2.64
-47% / +72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
378 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 74%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
33.0 Crosses 13.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME APOEL Nicosia
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Astana
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
375 Passes 236
79% Pass Accuracy 68%
30.08.2018 FC Astana FC Astana 1-0 HT 1-0 APOEL Nicosia APOEL Nicosia AVL
23.08.2018 APOEL Nicosia APOEL Nicosia 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Astana FC Astana AVL
24.11.2016 FC Astana FC Astana 2-1 HT 0-1 APOEL Nicosia APOEL Nicosia AVL
15.09.2016 APOEL Nicosia APOEL Nicosia 2-1 HT 0-1 FC Astana FC Astana AVL
26.08.2015 APOEL Nicosia APOEL Nicosia 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Astana FC Astana ŞMP
18.08.2015 FC Astana FC Astana 1-0 HT 1-0 APOEL Nicosia APOEL Nicosia ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME APOEL Nicosia
1-1
AWAY FC Astana
1.19 xG 1.17
37% Ball Possession 63%
19 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
224 Passes 433
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 9
19 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH APOEL Nicosia vs FC Astana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

APOEL Nicosia and FC Astana shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had APOEL Nicosia at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, APOEL Nicosia had 37% of the ball to FC Astana's 63%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.19 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Astana led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for APOEL Nicosia and 1.00 for FC Astana.

What was the final score of APOEL Nicosia vs FC Astana?

APOEL Nicosia 1-1 FC Astana in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 19/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for APOEL Nicosia vs FC Astana?

Before kick-off our model rated a APOEL Nicosia win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split APOEL Nicosia 58%, draw 25%, FC Astana 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (APOEL Nicosia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (APOEL Nicosia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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