Larne FC 1-0 Gent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 19 Dec 2024

📅19/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
12.23
Draw
21%
5.71
Away
54%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.29
Over 2.5
49%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.4
No
54%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
4.48
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
20%
2.78
6+ Goals
11%
7.77
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.48 — our 29% vs market 16.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
27.0
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
7%
32.0
X/1
7%
31.5
X/2
17%
3.31
X/X
7%
9.02
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.35
2/X
8%
32.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
6%
+18.9pp
21%
Draw
15%
+6.9pp
54%
Away Win
80%
-25.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
38%
+8.9pp
54%
BTTS No
62%
-8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Larne FC EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Gent EU Bookmakers 84%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
0.19/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.24/1.39
+51% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -16%
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
209 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 456 · 84%
7.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
4.0 Crosses 21.2
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Larne FC
1-0
AWAY Gent
0.71 xG 1.33
24% Ball Possession 76%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 9
120 Passes 530
62% Pass Accuracy 88%
11 Box Touches 26
6 Crosses 37
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Larne FC vs Gent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Larne FC edged past Gent 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Gent at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Larne FC had 24% of the ball to Gent's 76%, shots finished 6-16, expected goals 0.71 to 1.33 — the balance of chances actually favoured Gent.

What was the final score of Larne FC vs Gent?

Larne FC 1-0 Gent in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 19/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Larne FC vs Gent?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gent win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Larne FC 25%, draw 21%, Gent 54%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gent) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gent) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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