Djurgarden 3-1 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 19 Dec 2024

📅19/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
2.95
6+ Goals
11%
9.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.03 — our 25% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.59
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
12.95
X/1
15%
4.68
X/2
11%
7.92
X/X
9%
5.25
2/1
10%
23.0
2/2
12%
5.42
2/X
11%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.1pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Djurgarden EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 29%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.57/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.60
-41% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +147% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
19.0 Crosses 23.6
0.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Djurgarden
3-1
AWAY Legia Varşova
0.66 xG 1.05
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
311 Passes 231
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Djurgarden vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Djurgarden saw off Legia Varşova 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Djurgarden as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Djurgarden had 55% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 45%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 0.66 to 1.05.

What was the final score of Djurgarden vs Legia Varşova?

Djurgarden 3-1 Legia Varşova in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 19/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Djurgarden vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Djurgarden win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Djurgarden 43%, draw 26%, Legia Varşova 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Djurgarden), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Djurgarden) ✓ BTTS Yes
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