Genk 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.41
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.36
6+ Goals
10%
12.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
3.64
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
18%
5.71
X/2
14%
6.02
X/X
9%
4.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
27.5
2/2
16%
3.95
2/X
11%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+1.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
1.69/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.25
+11% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +35%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
380 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 76%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
17.2 Crosses 16.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.37 xG 1.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
356 Passes 291
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 37
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2025 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
10.11.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 4-0 HT 2-0 Genk Genk BEL
26.05.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-0 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
01.04.2024 Genk Genk 1-0 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
03.02.2024 Genk Genk 0-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
16.09.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-2 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
1-2
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.99 xG 2.44
66% Ball Possession 34%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
428 Passes 182
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise squeezed past Genk 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Union Saint-Gilloise found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Genk had 66% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 34%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.99 to 2.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Union Saint-Gilloise's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Genk and 1.33 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Genk 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Pro League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Genk 37%, draw 27%, Union Saint-Gilloise 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Genk) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Genk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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