Tlaxcala 1-1 Monarcas Morelia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.46
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
39%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
6%
2/1
10%
2/2
21%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
26%
+11.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
39%
Away Win
50%
-10.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tlaxcala EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 54%
-11% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
0.89/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/0.77
-26% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / +57%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
274 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tlaxcala
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Monarcas Morelia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
01.11.2024 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-1 HT 1-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
09.02.2024 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 3-1 HT 2-1 Tlaxcala MEK2
21.09.2023 Tlaxcala 2-3 HT 0-2 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
07.01.2023 Tlaxcala 0-0 HT 0-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
06.07.2022 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-0 HT 1-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
10.01.2022 Tlaxcala 0-4 HT 0-2 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
POST-MATCH Tlaxcala vs Monarcas Morelia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tlaxcala and Monarcas Morelia couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tlaxcala and 2.33 for Monarcas Morelia.

What was the final score of Tlaxcala vs Monarcas Morelia?

Tlaxcala 1-1 Monarcas Morelia in the Mexico - Primera A on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tlaxcala vs Monarcas Morelia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monarcas Morelia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Tlaxcala 38%, draw 24%, Monarcas Morelia 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Monarcas Morelia), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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