Celaya 1-0 CD Tapatio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.9
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.0
Over 2.5
55%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
13%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
49%
+2.0pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.5pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.3pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celaya EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Tapatio EU Bookmakers 29%
+8% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.93/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.35
+19% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celaya
1W-1D-4L
AWAY CD Tapatio
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
24.11.2024 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 3-2 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
21.11.2024 Celaya Celaya 1-2 HT 0-0 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
02.11.2024 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 1-1 HT 1-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
28.04.2024 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 2-0 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
25.04.2024 Celaya Celaya 4-3 HT 0-2 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
12.04.2024 Celaya Celaya 1-2 HT 0-1 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
POST-MATCH Celaya vs CD Tapatio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya squeezed past CD Tapatio 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Celaya as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CD Tapatio led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Celaya and 2.17 for CD Tapatio.

What was the final score of Celaya vs CD Tapatio?

Celaya 1-0 CD Tapatio in the Mexico - Primera A on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celaya vs CD Tapatio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Celaya 51%, draw 22%, CD Tapatio 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celaya) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celaya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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