Orange County SC 4-0 Las Vegas Lights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.86
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.01
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 29% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
50%
-7.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.6pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 28%
-11% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +13%
1.18/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.46
-18% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
347 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 79%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
16.4 Crosses 14.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orange County SC
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.23 xG 1.06
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
283 Passes 371
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2025 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-0 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
06.10.2024 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-1 HT 1-1 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
01.09.2024 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-3 HT 2-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
03.09.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-5 HT 0-3 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
26.03.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-2 HT 0-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
18.08.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-1 HT 1-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
4-0
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
2.76 xG 0.07
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 2
489 Passes 260
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 1
13 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orange County SC ran out comfortable winners over Las Vegas Lights 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Orange County SC as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Orange County SC had 63% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 37%, shots finished 17-4, expected goals 2.76 to 0.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Las Vegas Lights led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Orange County SC and 1.50 for Las Vegas Lights.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights?

Orange County SC 4-0 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orange County SC win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 42%, draw 30%, Las Vegas Lights 28%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orange County SC), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orange County SC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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