Stevenage 2-1 Exeter City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
17%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.43
2-3 Goals
36%
1.7
4-5 Goals
21%
4.27
6+ Goals
10%
22.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.27
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.2
X/1
18%
3.95
X/2
5%
9.16
X/X
13%
4.27
2/1
12%
27.5
2/2
8%
8.14
2/X
7%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
54%
+3.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
17%
Away Win
20%
-2.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.5pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stevenage EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Exeter City EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.44/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.57
-27% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
249 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 69%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
22.9 Crosses 17.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stevenage
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Exeter City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.24 xG 1.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
227 Passes 321
65% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2025 Stevenage Stevenage 4-1 HT 2-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
21.09.2024 Exeter City Exeter City 2-0 HT 1-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN1
06.04.2024 Exeter City Exeter City 1-0 HT 1-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN1
16.12.2023 Stevenage Stevenage 1-1 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
29.08.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 1-1 HT 1-0 Stevenage Stevenage İNLK
26.03.2022 Exeter City Exeter City 2-1 HT 2-1 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stevenage
2-1
AWAY Exeter City
1.23 xG 2.74
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
230 Passes 204
71% Pass Accuracy 69%
34 Box Touches 13
30 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stevenage vs Exeter City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stevenage nicked a narrow win over Exeter City 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Stevenage as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Stevenage had 53% of the ball to Exeter City's 47%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.23 to 2.74 — the balance of chances actually favoured Exeter City.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Exeter City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Stevenage and 1.33 for Exeter City.

What was the final score of Stevenage vs Exeter City?

Stevenage 2-1 Exeter City in the England - 1st Division on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stevenage vs Exeter City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stevenage win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Stevenage 58%, draw 25%, Exeter City 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stevenage) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Stevenage) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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