Caernarfon Town 1-2 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.18
Over 2.5
57%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.55
No
39%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.96
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
2.84
6+ Goals
13%
8.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.2pp
61%
BTTS Yes
60%
+0.2pp
39%
BTTS No
40%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 37%
+10% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +15%
2.22/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.00
+53% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +40%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Penybont
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.04.2025 Penybont Penybont 3-1 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
22.02.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-2 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
02.11.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-5 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
07.09.2024 Penybont Penybont 2-0 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
18.05.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-1 HT 3-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
04.11.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-4 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont nicked a narrow win over Caernarfon Town 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Caernarfon Town at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Caernarfon Town and 2.83 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?

Caernarfon Town 1-2 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 41%, draw 26%, Penybont 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caernarfon Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GAL More Wales - Premier League
20 Sep 2025
16:30 Flint Town United vs Barry Town Analysis →
16:30 Haverfordwest County vs Connahs Quay Analysis →
16:30 Llanelli Town vs Colwyn Bay Analysis →