Vegalta Sendai 3-1 Montedio Yamagata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.93
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
3.51
6+ Goals
10%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 29% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.7pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vegalta Sendai EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
1.11/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.20
-20% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
383 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.1 Crosses 15.2
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vegalta Sendai
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
222 Passes 280
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.06.2025 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 3-4 HT 2-2 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai JAP2
22.06.2024 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-1 HT 1-1 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai JAP2
13.04.2024 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai 2-0 HT 2-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
01.07.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 4-1 HT 2-0 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai JAP2
13.05.2023 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai 2-1 HT 1-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
25.06.2022 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai 1-1 HT 0-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vegalta Sendai
3-1
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
326 Passes 265
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vegalta Sendai vs Montedio Yamagata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vegalta Sendai saw off Montedio Yamagata 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vegalta Sendai as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Vegalta Sendai had 53% of the ball to Montedio Yamagata's 47%, shots finished 19-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vegalta Sendai had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Vegalta Sendai and 1.67 for Montedio Yamagata.

What was the final score of Vegalta Sendai vs Montedio Yamagata?

Vegalta Sendai 3-1 Montedio Yamagata in the Japan - J2 League on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vegalta Sendai vs Montedio Yamagata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vegalta Sendai win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Vegalta Sendai 45%, draw 25%, Montedio Yamagata 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vegalta Sendai), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vegalta Sendai) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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