Uniao De Leiria 2-1 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.8
Over
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
23%
2-3
37%
4-5
27%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
43%
Away Win
44%
-0.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.2pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria The Market 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional The Market 48%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -69% / +27%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
255 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Nacional
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.34 xG 1.21
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 7
304 Passes 323
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 0
30.03.2024 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-1 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
11.11.2023 Nacional Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
30.07.2023 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 3-3 HT 3-1 Nacional Nacional PRLK
12.05.2012 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-3 HT 0-2 Nacional Nacional POR
15.01.2012 Nacional Nacional 2-2 HT 0-1 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
12.02.2011 Nacional Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
2-1
AWAY Nacional
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria squeezed past Nacional 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Nacional at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 44% of the ball to Nacional's 56%, shots finished 9-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Uniao De Leiria and 1.83 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Nacional?

Uniao De Leiria 2-1 Nacional in the Portugal - Cup on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 32%, draw 26%, Nacional 43%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nacional) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nacional) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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