Gremio 2-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 20 Nov 2025

📅20/11/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
20%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.71
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
9%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.71 — our 30% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.5
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.55
X/1
22%
4.61
X/2
7%
8.16
X/X
14%
5.31
2/1
10%
22.7
2/2
8%
6.01
2/X
6%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
50%
+4.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.1pp
20%
Away Win
25%
-4.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.8pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
1.66/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.40
+19% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
17.3 Crosses 18.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.21 xG 0.97
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
274 Passes 346
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.07.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
29.07.2024 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
14.04.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
04.12.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
06.08.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
11.09.2022 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
2-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.72 xG 0.20
37% Ball Possession 63%
24 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
308 Passes 561
86% Pass Accuracy 90%
26 Box Touches 8
20 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio got the better of Vasco da Gama 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Gremio had 37% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 63%, shots finished 24-5, expected goals 1.72 to 0.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gremio and 0.83 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Vasco da Gama?

Gremio 2-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 20/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Gremio 55%, draw 25%, Vasco da Gama 20%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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