Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Royal Antwerp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 21 Feb 2026

Union Saint-Gilloise
2-1 HT 1-0
Royal Antwerp
📅21/02/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2025/2026

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Royal Antwerp Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.37
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
14%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.95
Over 2.5
56%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
2.09
No
45%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.29
6+ Goals
13%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 25% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.64
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
7%
19.05
X/1
28%
3.67
X/2
4%
15.2
X/X
8%
6.1
2/1
9%
23.95
2/2
6%
13.75
2/X
6%
22.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Union Saint-Gilloise win — 66% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
68%
-2.4pp
20%
Draw
20%
+0.5pp
14%
Away Win
12%
+1.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
44%
+10.9pp
45%
BTTS No
56%
-10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Union Saint-Gilloise v Royal Antwerp — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Royal Antwerp EU Bookmakers 15%
-1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +14%
2.10/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.76
-2% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +51%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 73%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
19.9 Crosses 12.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Royal Antwerp Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Royal Antwerp
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.92 xG 0.92
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
309 Passes 381
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.07.2025 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 1-1 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
17.05.2025 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 0-4 HT 0-3 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
29.03.2025 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 5-1 HT 3-1 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp BEL
08.01.2025 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 5-1 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEK
01.12.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 1-1 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp BEL
15.09.2024 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 2-0 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL

Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Royal Antwerp — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
2-1
AWAY Royal Antwerp
2.21 xG 0.78
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
412 Passes 214
82% Pass Accuracy 66%
35 Box Touches 7
32 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Royal Antwerp
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise edged past Royal Antwerp 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 62% of the ball to Royal Antwerp's 38%, shots finished 20-4, expected goals 2.21 to 0.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Union Saint-Gilloise's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.67 for Royal Antwerp.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Royal Antwerp?

Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Royal Antwerp in the Belgium - Pro League on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Royal Antwerp?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 66%, draw 20%, Royal Antwerp 14%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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