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Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Caerau (Ely) v Carmarthen Town — Team-Based Signals
Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
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2-4
HT 0-3
Carmarthen Town
GALFAW
Carmarthen Town edged past Caerau (Ely) 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Caerau (Ely) at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Carmarthen Town led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Caerau (Ely) and 2.00 for Carmarthen Town.
What was the final score of Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
Caerau (Ely) 3-4 Carmarthen Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
Before kick-off our model rated a Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Caerau (Ely) 46%, draw 24%, Carmarthen Town 30%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caerau (Ely)), Under 2.5 went the other way.