Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Defensor Sporting v Cerro Largo — Team-Based Signals
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 3-1
Cerro Largo
URU
2-0
HT 0-0
Cerro Largo
URU
Defensor Sporting 1-0 Cerro Largo — Actual Match Statistics
Defensor Sporting edged past Cerro Largo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Defensor Sporting as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Defensor Sporting had 55% of the ball to Cerro Largo's 45%, shots finished 15-8.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Defensor Sporting and 1.17 for Cerro Largo.
What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?
Defensor Sporting 1-0 Cerro Largo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 43%, draw 29%, Cerro Largo 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensor Sporting), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.