Defensor Sporting 1-0 Cerro Largo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 21 Feb 2026

📅21/02/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.54
Over 2.5
43%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.5pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.8pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
61%
-4.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
39%
+4.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.9pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.46/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/0.96
+14% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +31%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensor Sporting
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cerro Largo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 4
14.09.2025 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
25.05.2025 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 3-2 HT 2-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
23.03.2025 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
28.11.2024 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 3-0 HT 2-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
26.05.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 3-1 HT 3-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
22.10.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensor Sporting
1-0
AWAY Cerro Largo
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensor Sporting edged past Cerro Largo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Defensor Sporting as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Defensor Sporting had 55% of the ball to Cerro Largo's 45%, shots finished 15-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Defensor Sporting and 1.17 for Cerro Largo.

What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?

Defensor Sporting 1-0 Cerro Largo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 43%, draw 29%, Cerro Largo 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensor Sporting), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Defensor Sporting) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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