Burkina Faso 4-1 Cibuti — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 21 Mar 2025

📅21/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
1.16
Draw
33%
7.13
Away
33%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.51
Over 2.5
50%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.75
No
50%
1.39
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 50%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
82%
-49.0pp
33%
Draw
12%
+21.7pp
33%
Away Win
6%
+27.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
36%
+13.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
64%
-13.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
32%
+17.8pp
50%
BTTS No
68%
-17.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burkina Faso EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Cibuti EU Bookmakers 8%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.53/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/4.27
-43% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -46%
50% Ball Possession 50%
0 Total Shots 0
0 Shots on Target 0
0 Corners 0
0 · 0% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 0 · 0%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burkina Faso
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Cibuti
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
11.10.2021 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso 2-0 HT 1-0 Cibuti Cibuti DKE
08.10.2021 Cibuti Cibuti 0-4 HT 0-1 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso DKE
POST-MATCH Burkina Faso vs Cibuti
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burkina Faso cruised past Cibuti 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 33% / 33%) promised a tight game; Burkina Faso found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Burkina Faso had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Burkina Faso and 0.00 for Cibuti.

What was the final score of Burkina Faso vs Cibuti?

Burkina Faso 4-1 Cibuti in the World Cup Qualifiers on 21/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burkina Faso vs Cibuti?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burkina Faso win the most likely single outcome at about 33%, with the full match-result split Burkina Faso 33%, draw 33%, Cibuti 33%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (33/33/33)
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