Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax Prediction — Model Probabilities
Aarau v Neuchatel Xamax — Team-Based Signals
Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Aarau 1-0 Neuchatel Xamax — Actual Match Statistics
Aarau squeezed past Neuchatel Xamax 1-0. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.
As we said in the preview, our model had Aarau as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The one blemish: over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (57%) never looked like landing.
By the numbers, Aarau had 51% of the ball to Neuchatel Xamax's 49%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.78 to 0.34 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Aarau's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Aarau and 1.00 for Neuchatel Xamax.
Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax Result & Final Score
Aarau 1 - 0 Neuchatel Xamax in the Switzerland Challenge League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Aarau 69%, draw 18%, Neuchatel Xamax 13%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarau) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.