Famalicao vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Famalicao v Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Famalicao vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Nacional
POR
2-1
HT 0-1
Famalicao
POR
Famalicao 1-0 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Famalicao squeezed past Nacional 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Famalicao as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Famalicao had 54% of the ball to Nacional's 46%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.73 to 0.51 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Famalicao's control.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Famalicao and 0.80 for Nacional.
What was the final score of Famalicao vs Nacional?
Famalicao 1-0 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 57%, draw 24%, Nacional 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Famalicao) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.