Moreirense vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Moreirense v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Moreirense vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-1
Moreirense
POR
1-2
HT 1-0
Arouca
PORLC
Moreirense 0-1 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca squeezed past Moreirense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Arouca made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.
On the day, Moreirense had 49% of the ball to Arouca's 51%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.58 to 1.96 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Arouca's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Moreirense had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Moreirense and 0.67 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Moreirense vs Arouca?
Moreirense 0-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 34%, draw 27%, Arouca 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.