Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Benfica v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals
Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-0
HT 3-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
5-1
HT 3-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
Benfica 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics
Benfica ran out comfortable winners over Vitoria Guimaraes 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 78%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.
On the day, Benfica had 49% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 51%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 2.34 to 0.75.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Benfica and 0.50 for Vitoria Guimaraes.
What was the final score of Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Benfica 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 78%, with the full match-result split Benfica 78%, draw 15%, Vitoria Guimaraes 7%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.