Sporting Kansas City 3-3 St. Louis City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 21 Apr 2024

Sporting Kansas City
3-3 HT 1-2
St. Louis City
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.1
Over 2.5
45%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.09
6+ Goals
9%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 29% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.59
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
15%
4.61
X/2
13%
7.72
X/X
16%
5.13
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
7%
5.33
2/X
6%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.7pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.2pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.4pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Kansas City v St. Louis City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Kansas City EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
1.49/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.68
+6% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
402 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
19.9 Crosses 19.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8

Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Kansas City
3W-0D-2L
AWAY St. Louis City
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
1.50 xG 1.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
331 Passes 270
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
06.11.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 2-1 HT 1-0 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
30.10.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 1-4 HT 1-3 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
01.10.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 4-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
03.09.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 2-1 HT 2-1 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
21.05.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 4-0 HT 2-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD

Sporting Kansas City 3-3 St. Louis City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Kansas City
3-3
AWAY St. Louis City
1.30 xG 1.96
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
377 Passes 247
75% Pass Accuracy 68%
10 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Kansas City and St. Louis City couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Kansas City at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting Kansas City had 57% of the ball to St. Louis City's 43%, shots finished 8-19, expected goals 1.30 to 1.96.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sporting Kansas City had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 2.20 for St. Louis City.

What was the final score of Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City?

Sporting Kansas City 3-3 St. Louis City in the USA - Major League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Kansas City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sporting Kansas City 46%, draw 29%, St. Louis City 26%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Kansas City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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