Chelmsford City 5-1 Welling United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
2.0
Over
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.64
2-3
37%
1.8
4-5
25%
3.1
6+
10%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.64 — our 28% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+0.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.8pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelmsford City EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Welling United EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -23%
1.52/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.87
+1% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -27%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelmsford City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Welling United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.12.2024 Welling United Welling United 0-1 HT 0-0 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
22.01.2024 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 1-0 HT 1-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
15.08.2023 Welling United Welling United 1-2 HT 0-0 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
28.01.2023 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 0-1 HT 0-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
27.08.2022 Welling United Welling United 1-2 HT 0-0 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
19.03.2022 Welling United Welling United 1-0 HT 1-0 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
POST-MATCH Chelmsford City vs Welling United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelmsford City cruised past Welling United 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chelmsford City as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelmsford City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chelmsford City and 0.67 for Welling United.

What was the final score of Chelmsford City vs Welling United?

Chelmsford City 5-1 Welling United in the England - Conference on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelmsford City vs Welling United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelmsford City win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Chelmsford City 47%, draw 24%, Welling United 29%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelmsford City), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelmsford City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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