Mura 1-2 Maribor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 21 Apr 2025

Mura
1-2 HT 0-0
Maribor
📅21/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
46%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.05
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.55
6+ Goals
11%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 31% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
26%
+2.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
46%
Away Win
48%
-1.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.3pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mura EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Maribor EU Bookmakers 52%
+7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -15%
1.17/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.08
+10% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -7%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
220 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mura
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Maribor
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2025 Maribor Maribor 2-0 HT 2-0 Mura Mura SLVN
26.10.2024 Mura Mura 1-1 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
11.08.2024 Maribor Maribor 2-1 HT 1-1 Mura Mura SLVN
09.04.2024 Maribor Maribor 5-0 HT 2-0 Mura Mura SLVN
18.02.2024 Mura Mura 3-0 HT 0-2 Maribor Maribor SLVN
26.11.2023 Mura Mura 0-0 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mura
1-2
AWAY Maribor
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mura vs Maribor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maribor nicked a narrow win over Mura 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Maribor as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Mura had 37% of the ball to Maribor's 63%, shots finished 8-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maribor led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mura and 1.67 for Maribor.

What was the final score of Mura vs Maribor?

Mura 1-2 Maribor in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mura vs Maribor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Mura 28%, draw 26%, Maribor 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maribor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maribor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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SLVN More Slovenia - 1st Division
21 Apr 2025
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