Cusco FC 2-3 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 21 May 2026

📅21/05/2026 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.26
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 30% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.54
1/2
9%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
15%
5.49
X/2
10%
5.87
X/X
16%
4.63
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
13%
3.93
2/X
7%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
+0.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
32%
Away Win
35%
-2.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.8pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cusco FC EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 38%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
0.92/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.00
-27% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
323 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 79%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
35.6 Crosses 12.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cusco FC
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.39 xG 1.12
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 21
1 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 6
247 Passes 467
81% Pass Accuracy 91%
9 Box Touches 36
17 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.05.2026 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 0-0 Cusco FC Cusco FC LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cusco FC
2-3
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.31 xG 2.63
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 3
376 Passes 207
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
10 Box Touches 19
31 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cusco FC vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin squeezed past Cusco FC 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Independiente Medellin made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cusco FC had 62% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 38%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.31 to 2.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente Medellin's control.

What was the final score of Cusco FC vs Independiente Medellin?

Cusco FC 2-3 Independiente Medellin in the Copa Libertadores on 21/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cusco FC vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cusco FC win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Cusco FC 38%, draw 29%, Independiente Medellin 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cusco FC) ✗ Under 2.5
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