BFC Daugavpils 1-2 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 21 Jun 2025

📅21/06/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-8.8pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.4pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+6.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.8pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -9%
1.52/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.80
+33% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +0%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 73%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
20.2 Crosses 17.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
4W-2D-0L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.39 xG 1.12
44% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
238 Passes 328
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.04.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
07.03.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-0 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
21.09.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
03.07.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-2 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
12.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-1 HT 2-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
30.03.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-1 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1-2
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.85 xG 1.51
67% Ball Possession 33%
25 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
377 Passes 141
82% Pass Accuracy 64%
41 Box Touches 12
31 Crosses 11
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Tukums 2000 squeezed past BFC Daugavpils 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was BFC Daugavpils at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 67% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 33%, shots finished 25-10, expected goals 1.85 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 0.50 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs FK Tukums 2000?

BFC Daugavpils 1-2 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 21/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 49%, draw 25%, FK Tukums 2000 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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