Sutton United 3-2 Ebbsfleet United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 21 Sep 2024

Sutton United
3-2 HT 1-0
Ebbsfleet United
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - National League – 2024/2025

Sutton United vs Ebbsfleet United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.23
6+ Goals
11%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 26% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.22
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.0
X/1
22%
4.0
X/2
8%
9.0
X/X
10%
5.5
2/1
10%
22.3
2/2
9%
6.73
2/X
7%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-2.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
22%
Away Win
22%
+0.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.8pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sutton United v Ebbsfleet United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sutton United EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Ebbsfleet United EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -8%
1.92/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/2.14
+10% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -28%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
230 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

Sutton United vs Ebbsfleet United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sutton United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ebbsfleet United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 4
The Meetings
01.02.2020 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United 1-1 HT 1-0 Sutton United Sutton United İBSL
26.10.2019 Sutton United Sutton United 2-3 HT 1-1 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
26.01.2019 Sutton United Sutton United 1-0 HT 0-0 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
14.08.2018 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United 0-1 HT 0-1 Sutton United Sutton United İBSL
21.04.2018 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United 0-1 HT 0-0 Sutton United Sutton United İBSL
28.10.2017 Sutton United Sutton United 0-0 HT 0-0 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL

Sutton United 3-2 Ebbsfleet United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sutton United
3-2
AWAY Ebbsfleet United
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
3 Passes 0
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sutton United vs Ebbsfleet United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sutton United squeezed past Ebbsfleet United 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sutton United as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sutton United had 45% of the ball to Ebbsfleet United's 55%, shots finished 8-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sutton United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sutton United and 0.67 for Ebbsfleet United.

What was the final score of Sutton United vs Ebbsfleet United?

Sutton United 3-2 Ebbsfleet United in the England - National League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sutton United vs Ebbsfleet United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sutton United win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Sutton United 52%, draw 26%, Ebbsfleet United 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sutton United), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sutton United) ✓ BTTS Yes
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