Eastleigh 4-2 Rochdale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
37%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.21
6+ Goals
8%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 33% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.93
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
11%
5.93
X/2
13%
5.25
X/X
10%
5.06
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
17%
3.3
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+2.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-2.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.1pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eastleigh EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Rochdale EU Bookmakers 43%
+9% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.64/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.43/1.32
+19% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +72% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eastleigh
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Rochdale
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
16.03.2024 Eastleigh Eastleigh 1-4 HT 1-2 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
19.08.2023 Rochdale Rochdale 2-0 HT 2-0 Eastleigh Eastleigh İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eastleigh
4-2
AWAY Rochdale
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 10
2 Passes 1
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Eastleigh vs Rochdale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eastleigh got the better of Rochdale 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and on the day Eastleigh made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Eastleigh had 40% of the ball to Rochdale's 60%, shots finished 7-12.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Rochdale led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Eastleigh and 3.00 for Rochdale.

What was the final score of Eastleigh vs Rochdale?

Eastleigh 4-2 Rochdale in the England - National League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eastleigh vs Rochdale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eastleigh win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Eastleigh 38%, draw 25%, Rochdale 37%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Eastleigh) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Eastleigh) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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