Bristol City 2-1 Oxford United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.5
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.41
6+ Goals
12%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 28% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.31
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
14%
4.13
X/2
11%
8.92
X/X
12%
4.98
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
9%
6.77
2/X
6%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol City EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Oxford United EU Bookmakers 25%
+12% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
1.87/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/2.95
+18% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +100% / -50%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
433 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
24.6 Crosses 10.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol City
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Oxford United
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
2.61 xG 1.02
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
680 Passes 344
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.08.2023 Bristol City Bristol City 5-1 HT 2-1 Oxford United Oxford United İNLK
12.08.2014 Bristol City Bristol City 1-2 HT 1-0 Oxford United Oxford United İNLK
03.03.2001 Bristol City Bristol City 0-0 HT 0-0 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
30.09.2000 Oxford United Oxford United 0-1 HT 0-1 Bristol City Bristol City İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol City
2-1
AWAY Oxford United
2.32 xG 1.74
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
385 Passes 276
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bristol City vs Oxford United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol City nicked a narrow win over Oxford United 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bristol City as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Bristol City had 56% of the ball to Oxford United's 44%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.32 to 1.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Bristol City had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Bristol City and 0.75 for Oxford United.

What was the final score of Bristol City vs Oxford United?

Bristol City 2-1 Oxford United in the England - Championship on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol City vs Oxford United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bristol City win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Bristol City 48%, draw 24%, Oxford United 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bristol City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bristol City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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