Norwich City 4-1 Watford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
25%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.84
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 28% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.78
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
18%
4.66
X/2
9%
6.95
X/X
12%
5.15
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
10%
4.83
2/X
10%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
25%
Away Win
29%
-3.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.7pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Norwich City EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Watford EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +21%
1.42/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.36
+9% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
336 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 69%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
18.6 Crosses 16.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Norwich City
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Watford
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.14 xG 1.86
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
287 Passes 377
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.02.2024 Norwich City Norwich City 4-2 HT 2-1 Watford Watford İNCL
28.11.2023 Watford Watford 3-2 HT 2-2 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
02.01.2023 Norwich City Norwich City 0-1 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNCL
15.10.2022 Watford Watford 2-1 HT 2-1 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
21.01.2022 Watford Watford 0-3 HT 0-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNP
18.09.2021 Norwich City Norwich City 1-3 HT 1-1 Watford Watford İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Norwich City
4-1
AWAY Watford
2.72 xG 1.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
471 Passes 366
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Norwich City vs Watford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Norwich City ran out comfortable winners over Watford 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Norwich City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Norwich City had 55% of the ball to Watford's 45%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 2.72 to 1.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Watford led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Norwich City and 1.83 for Watford.

What was the final score of Norwich City vs Watford?

Norwich City 4-1 Watford in the England - Championship on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Norwich City vs Watford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Norwich City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Norwich City 46%, draw 28%, Watford 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Norwich City), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Norwich City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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