Luton Town 2-1 Sheffield Wednesday — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.28
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.59
6+ Goals
10%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 27% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.61
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.5
X/1
16%
4.36
X/2
8%
7.67
X/X
12%
4.66
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
10%
5.76
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+2.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luton Town EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sheffield Wednesday EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +8%
1.49/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.52
-21% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
322 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 73%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
25.0 Crosses 16.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luton Town
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Sheffield Wednesday
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.41 xG 1.60
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
271 Passes 289
71% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.07.2023 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 1-2 Luton Town Luton Town HAZ
27.02.2021 Luton Town Luton Town 3-2 HT 0-2 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday İNCL
24.10.2020 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
12.02.2020 Luton Town Luton Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday İNCL
20.08.2019 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
15.01.2019 Luton Town Luton Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luton Town
2-1
AWAY Sheffield Wednesday
2.30 xG 0.85
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
344 Passes 189
81% Pass Accuracy 67%
26 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Luton Town vs Sheffield Wednesday
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luton Town squeezed past Sheffield Wednesday 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Luton Town as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Luton Town had 59% of the ball to Sheffield Wednesday's 41%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.30 to 0.85 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Luton Town's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luton Town had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Luton Town and 0.83 for Sheffield Wednesday.

What was the final score of Luton Town vs Sheffield Wednesday?

Luton Town 2-1 Sheffield Wednesday in the England - Championship on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luton Town vs Sheffield Wednesday?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Luton Town 46%, draw 27%, Sheffield Wednesday 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Luton Town), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Luton Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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