Sunderland 1-0 Middlesbrough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.28
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.58
6+ Goals
9%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 29% vs market 24.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.72
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
10%
5.51
X/2
16%
5.51
X/X
13%
4.58
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
14%
3.71
2/X
8%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.4pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sunderland EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 40%
-11% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
1.23/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.08
-8% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
298 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 73%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
14.6 Crosses 17.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sunderland
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.37 xG 1.64
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
380 Passes 313
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.02.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
07.10.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 0-4 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
22.01.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 2-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
05.09.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-0 HT 1-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
24.02.2018 Sunderland Sunderland 3-3 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
06.01.2018 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-0 HT 2-0 Sunderland Sunderland FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sunderland
1-0
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.17 xG 1.28
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 5
287 Passes 516
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sunderland vs Middlesbrough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sunderland squeezed past Middlesbrough 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Sunderland made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Sunderland had 37% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 63%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.17 to 1.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sunderland and 1.83 for Middlesbrough.

What was the final score of Sunderland vs Middlesbrough?

Sunderland 1-0 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sunderland vs Middlesbrough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Sunderland 34%, draw 29%, Middlesbrough 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Middlesbrough) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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